The Ad Hoc Gist: Can States Defend and Advance Climate Progress?

The Ad Hoc Gist: Can States Defend and Advance Climate Progress?

July 2025

Now that Congress has gutted much of the Inflation Reduction Act, attention turns back to the states that have historically provided a "climate firewall" when the federal government backslides.

In 2016 when Trump was first elected, climate-forward states united in common cause to flex the power that the federalist system gave them to continue to drive the energy transition forward.

In this month's Gist, we interview Will Toor, who leads Colorado Governor Polis' energy office, to find out if states will step up again and what's different about 2025.

We’re also happy to announce that Kate Tanner has joined the AHG team as an Associate.

And, in other exciting news, registration will officially open on August 4 for the Power Resilience Forum. Learn more and register here.

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Can States Defend and Advance Climate Progress?

Q: What does the "One Big Beautiful Bill" mean for Colorado specifically? What are the most immediate impacts for energy and climate tech businesses?

Will Toor: The impacts are significant. The biggest concern is inflationary pressure on energy costs. Wind and solar have been Colorado’s most affordable sources of electricity, and cutting subsidies will slow growth.

Another immediate impact is the accelerated phase-out of electric vehicle tax credits. Colorado has a thriving EV market, with EVs making up about 25% of new vehicle sales. This bill, combined with potential tariffs, will drive up costs in one of the fastest-growing vehicle segments.

We're also seeing ripple effects in the battery sector. Amprius Technologies has held off on plans for a battery manufacturing facility in Adams County due to federal policy changes. Our wind manufacturing industry is also concerned about a potential drop in demand.

Q: How are you making the case for continued state investment in clean energy while balancing competing priorities?

Will Toor: Colorado is balancing wildfire recovery, grid resilience investments, and the effects of federal cuts to health care and food assistance — all of which strain the budget.

That said, many high-impact climate policies don’t require new state spending. Strong standards for industrial and methane emissions, or building performance codes, help drive private-sector action without drawing on the state budget.

Where funding is required — particularly for transportation electrification, low-income EV adoption, and EV infrastructure — Colorado is well-positioned to maintain momentum despite broader budget pressures. That’s because much of the funding comes from enterprise funds supported by retail delivery fees, which are legally designated and can’t be diverted elsewhere. These funds, along with utility-driven investments like Xcel Energy’s $439 million electrification plan, ensure Colorado’s clean transportation agenda isn’t reliant on volatile general fund allocations and remains insulated from federal rollbacks or economic downturns.

Q: How can states like Colorado close the gap as federal climate action scales back?

Will Toor: States still have powerful tools. Colorado has adopted climate targets that include cutting emissions in half from 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050. To get there, we’ve built a policy pathway focused on five areas: transportation, electricity generation, oil and gas production, industry and manufacturing, and fuel use in homes and buildings.

On the building side, we’re continuing to advance clean heat goals even as federal incentives are rolled back – including clean heat plan requirements for gas utilities.

Colorado is also on track to reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by more than two-thirds, thanks to regulations from the Air Quality Control and Energy and Carbon Management Commissions. For industrial emissions, we’ve implemented emission reduction requirements for the state’s largest manufacturers, backed by grants and a competitive tax credit program to encourage deeper, voluntary cuts.

Q: What are you hearing from energy and climate tech companies in Colorado? What's your message to those already in Colorado or considering doing business in the state?

Will Toor: Companies are still processing that federal legislation didn’t improve in the Senate — and in some ways got worse, such as the accelerated phase-out of EV incentives. But Colorado remains committed to clean tech innovation.

We’re working to ensure utilities like Xcel stay aligned with Colorado’s climate goals, even amid uncertainty. We're confident about Xcel meeting their emissions reduction targets, with coal retirement 'pretty well locked in' and the last plant retiring by 2030. The real challenge isn't commitment — it's building replacement generation fast enough to capture remaining tax credits. Xcel's existing coal plants are high-cost and unreliable (like the Comanche 3 plant that's been offline frequently for repairs), which reinforces the economic case for retirement rather than any backsliding.

At the same time, we see significant potential in geothermal — one of the few sectors with federal support. The state is offering grants, tax credits, and streamlined permitting to accelerate deployment. One of the most exciting opportunities is co-investment with data center developers. There’s strong interest from hyperscalers, and powering those high-load facilities with geothermal could be a major growth area for Colorado.

We also offer long-term policy stability. Since passing our renewable portfolio standard in 2004, Colorado has enacted climate policies across nearly every sector. We take a pragmatic approach — moving forward when we can reach 80% or 90% consensus, rather than stalling over the final 10%. That has kept litigation relatively low compared to other states.

Finally, Colorado is home to world-class talent. Institutions like the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and our research universities keep us at the forefront of climate tech innovation.

Q: If you had to give our readers one key takeaway about how states and businesses  lead when the federal government steps back, what would it be?

Will Toor: The federal government is not all-powerful. Many of the most important climate decisions happen at the state level – from electricity planning by public utilities commissions to building codes and emissions regulations.

For businesses, the federal government can certainly distort incentives, but ultimately, low-cost clean tech will win. These policies may slow development temporarily, but they won’t change the long-term trajectory. The key is to keep deploying innovative technologies.

That’s why we’re focused on building resilient, state-level programs that don’t depend on federal continuity. We’re making sure climate progress in Colorado continues, regardless of what happens in Washington.

Save the Date!

Registration opens Monday, August 4 for the 2026 Power Resilience Forum! PRF will convene experts at the intersection of the power sector and resilience solutions to tackle grid resilience in an era of extreme weather. Get more info at resilience-forum.com.

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